Model-based Formal Reliability Analysis of Grid Dynamics with Solar Energy Sources

This work presents a model-based formal reliability analysis of the electricity grid dynamics in the presence of a large population of solar panels, under several scenarios of load demand and of renewables penetration. The electric network is represented as a feedback interconnection between the dynamics of the grid and those of a heterogeneous population of solar panels that injects power into the network. Introducing a formal abstraction technique, we obtain a Markov model that allows to quantitatively verify a reliability specification by means of probabilistic model checking. This specification ensures that the network frequency does not deviate from a reference level following a generation-loss incident. We further encode the population heterogeneity, the total load of the network, and the penetration of solar sources as parameters of the model, and present a procedure to automatically synthesise their values in order to guarantee the reliable operation of the network.